Presidential Race – 2000 All Over Again; Romney 47% – 46% Nationwide
October 30, 2012
By Pollster John Zogby
“With days to go neither candidate really has sufficient momentum. Nationwide, Romney leads among those who already voted and is up 3 points among independents. His 10 point lead among men is nearly offset by Obama’s 6 point lead among women. Obama leads by 30 among Hispanics but 8% are now undecided.
Romney has picked up late support among evangelicals, hitting 62% for the first time. He is also virtually tied with Obama among the Creative Class. This, of course, is all about turnout and a storm impacting some key states is another wild card. At this point in time, I am looking at my national and battleground numbers from 2000.”
Virginia: Obama 48% to Romney 47%
Pollster John Zogby: “In Virginia, Obama has also pulled ahead by 9 points among independents, women 54%-42%, and is ahead 96% to 2% among African Americans. Obama is polling 42% (much higher than 2008) among evangelicals (to Romney’s 55%). Is that the Mormon factor? With three minor candidates each polling 1%, Obama leads by a little more. Romney leads among Virginians who have already voted and among those who are definitely voting. Obama has a wide lead among those who say they are “very likely” to vote. Will they come out on Election Day?”
Ohio: Obama Leads by 4, 50%-46%; Senate Race Is Dead Heat
Pollster John Zogby: “Even though Obama’s job performance (48% Approve/49% Disapprove) and re-elect (45%-46%) are upside down, he has opened up a slightly bigger lead in Ohio by virtue of taking the lead among independents (8 points), widening his lead among women (11 points), and consolidating his support among African Americans and young voters to percentages closer to what he did in 2008. He also leads among Catholics by 9 points and scoring 39% (to Romney’s 58%) among evangelicals.”
Florida: Romney Up By 1 Point in Florida, 48%-47%
“Obama and Romney are in a dead heat among men and women. While Obama leads a few points among independents, Romney has an even stronger lead among Republicans than Obama has among Democrats. Romney is over performing the GOP’s share from 2008 among young voters, but Obama is outperforming his own numbers among evangelicals. Romney has especially grown his lead among NASCAR fans, a group he had been lagging. The difference right now is the extremely important Creative Class where the two candidates are pretty much tied. Obama had a huge advantage among these voters in 2008, which was a critical part of his victory coalition in the battleground states.”
