September 17, 2015
By John Zogby
Washington, DC – A brand new Zogby Analytics Poll conducted Monday and Tuesday shows real estate mogul Donald Trump holding a huge lead over his Republican opponents. The poll of 282 likely GOP primary/caucus voters nationwide taken September 14-15, has Mr. Trump with 31%, with his nearest rival, famed neurosurgeon, Dr. Ben Carson at 16%. No other candidate comes in with double digits.
Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush is at 9%, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker and Ohio Governor John Kasich are at 5% each, and Texas Senator Ted Cruz, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee are all tied with 4% each. New Jersey Governor Chris Christie gets 3% and former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina receives 2%. Twelve percent are still undecided.
Trump leads among men (36% to Dr. Carson's 11% and Mr. Bush's 9%) and women (27% to Dr. Carson's 21% and Mr. Bush's 8%). He also leads among Republicans (with 33% to Dr. Carson's 19% and Mr. Bush's 10%) and independents with 26% to Dr. Carson's 13% and Mr. Paul's 11%.Mr. Trump continues widening his lead and dominates the public discourse.
Thus far, he has been able to counter-punch effectively and thus to put his opponents and the media on the defensive. Taking an aggressive position against him has only helped him and hurt each of his opponents who have tried (Bush, Paul, and Jindal). I continue to doubt that he can triumph by being outrageous. But the summer has been very kind to Donald Trump.
In the nationwide Zogby Analytics Poll of all likely voters, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton only leads Mr. Trump by 6 points – 41% to 35%, with 18% preferring someone else and 6% undecided. What is striking is not only that the race is so close but that the best known candidate in the world is polling a meager 41%. They are tied among men – with Mr. Trump at 40% and Mrs. Clinton with 39%– but she has a 14 point lead among women 44%-30%.
She leads heavily among voters under 50, while he is ahead among voters over 50. In a separate matchup, Vice President Joe Biden is in a dead heat against Mr. Trump 38% to 37%, with 18% preferring someone else and 8% undecided.